Hi Frank...thanks for the question...Marley did consider looking at accumulation of dual credits as another measure of academic preparation. The college-going rate focuses on high school graduates who attend at least one semester of college in the year after graduation. So, we would need to know whether or not a high school graduate had taken dual credit courses. Unfortunately, data was not collected on dual credit accumulation by high school graduates until 2012. So, Marley went with a longer data series instead of bringing the dual credit data in. Ironically, Indiana has one of the nation’s highest rates of participation in dual credit, and yet has experienced one of the nation’s steepest declines in college going. (https://www.nacep.org/resource-center/nacep-fast-facts/) Thanks again.
--As you know, a recent theme among politicians and the commentariat is "College isn't really worth it". Of course the politicians always send their own kids to college, usually very nice ones, but I'd wonder if there are political / regional differences in receptivity to that messaging, and do those interact? Do the ongoing caricatures of colleges as "woke" ideology factories magnify that effect? I think you've touched on this before, but cannot recall your conclusions. The data in this Gallup poll would suggest that Republicans' opinions of college are lower than that of Democrats, so one might expect that to have a greater impact in the most Republican areas of Republican states https://news.gallup.com/poll/695003/perceived-importance-college-hits-new-low.aspx
--The community college system's enrollment patterns have been interesting to follow. From the early 2000s thru 2008 enrollments rose steadily each year, particularly as Ivy Tech moved from being a vo-tech college to a true community college system (taking over delivery of transfer arts and science classes from Vincennes around 2005 or 2006). Then they skyrocketed during the recession, not a surprise since CC enrollments often run countercyclical to the economy. And then they trended downward quite sharply from that bubble-driven peak as employment rates picked back up. It's hard to know what the baseline expectation should be for this system (I assume the econ lit informs that), but leadership has struggled with the problem for a good long time now.
--I wonder if the rise in completion rates is tied to the rise in online class offerings, especially in the community college sector, making it easier for adults to complete a degree if they found employment in mid-program? Also, around 2020 the community college system committed more to 8-week class structures (taking two 8-week classes at a time, twice a semester, rather than 4 in parallel), which may have had an effect
--One confounding variable when it comes to understanding "a shift in student preference toward short-term certificates" within the CC system is that a decade or so ago, driven by state incentives for credential completion, the community college system began more aggressively searching transcripts of enrollees to see who might have completed the requirements for a certificate, and then issuing those certificates to students who may not have even known they'd met those requirements. So, for some it may less be "student preference" than "institutional incentives", though certainly in more technical areas the certificates will be of specific interest to students
While high tuition prices might dissuade some college goers, this study was based on Indiana. There, tuition has been frozen in the largest four year institutions for more than a decade. And, almost all the decline in student enrollment is happening in two years associate degrees, which have a tuition price of about $5300 a year and are close to free for many students. So sticker shock doesn’t seem like the right answer for that state.
Hi Frank...thanks for the question...Marley did consider looking at accumulation of dual credits as another measure of academic preparation. The college-going rate focuses on high school graduates who attend at least one semester of college in the year after graduation. So, we would need to know whether or not a high school graduate had taken dual credit courses. Unfortunately, data was not collected on dual credit accumulation by high school graduates until 2012. So, Marley went with a longer data series instead of bringing the dual credit data in. Ironically, Indiana has one of the nation’s highest rates of participation in dual credit, and yet has experienced one of the nation’s steepest declines in college going. (https://www.nacep.org/resource-center/nacep-fast-facts/) Thanks again.
Do you know if the data include dual enrollment (i.e., high school students)? If so, I'm curious as to how that might change the results.
GREAT WORK! Good to see solid quantitative research on the important issues of the future of higher education.
Various thoughts, nothing coherent:
--As you know, a recent theme among politicians and the commentariat is "College isn't really worth it". Of course the politicians always send their own kids to college, usually very nice ones, but I'd wonder if there are political / regional differences in receptivity to that messaging, and do those interact? Do the ongoing caricatures of colleges as "woke" ideology factories magnify that effect? I think you've touched on this before, but cannot recall your conclusions. The data in this Gallup poll would suggest that Republicans' opinions of college are lower than that of Democrats, so one might expect that to have a greater impact in the most Republican areas of Republican states https://news.gallup.com/poll/695003/perceived-importance-college-hits-new-low.aspx
--The community college system's enrollment patterns have been interesting to follow. From the early 2000s thru 2008 enrollments rose steadily each year, particularly as Ivy Tech moved from being a vo-tech college to a true community college system (taking over delivery of transfer arts and science classes from Vincennes around 2005 or 2006). Then they skyrocketed during the recession, not a surprise since CC enrollments often run countercyclical to the economy. And then they trended downward quite sharply from that bubble-driven peak as employment rates picked back up. It's hard to know what the baseline expectation should be for this system (I assume the econ lit informs that), but leadership has struggled with the problem for a good long time now.
--I wonder if the rise in completion rates is tied to the rise in online class offerings, especially in the community college sector, making it easier for adults to complete a degree if they found employment in mid-program? Also, around 2020 the community college system committed more to 8-week class structures (taking two 8-week classes at a time, twice a semester, rather than 4 in parallel), which may have had an effect
--One confounding variable when it comes to understanding "a shift in student preference toward short-term certificates" within the CC system is that a decade or so ago, driven by state incentives for credential completion, the community college system began more aggressively searching transcripts of enrollees to see who might have completed the requirements for a certificate, and then issuing those certificates to students who may not have even known they'd met those requirements. So, for some it may less be "student preference" than "institutional incentives", though certainly in more technical areas the certificates will be of specific interest to students
All very interesting reading, thanks!
$80,000 a year tuition will do that…
While high tuition prices might dissuade some college goers, this study was based on Indiana. There, tuition has been frozen in the largest four year institutions for more than a decade. And, almost all the decline in student enrollment is happening in two years associate degrees, which have a tuition price of about $5300 a year and are close to free for many students. So sticker shock doesn’t seem like the right answer for that state.